Anthony Albanese warns colleagues not to count on election outcome yet

Anthony Albanese has warned his colleagues and voters not to make any assumptions about the election result despite Labor pulling ahead in the polls with two weeks to go in the campaign, harking back to the party’s shock loss in 2019.

Early voting begins on Tuesday and the latest polling shows Labor consolidating a lead over the Coalition, with Newspoll on Monday putting its primary vote above 2022 levels.

However, pollsters and party insiders on both sides warn that this election, more than ever, will be a seat-by-seat prospect and the national two-party preferred indicator may not reflect the final result.

The Prime Minister had a cautionary tale ready to roll when asked about the polls on Monday morning: remember 2019.

Campaigning for the first time in the NSW South Coast seat of Gilmore – which was Labor’s most marginal seat after the 2022 election, won by just 373 votes – Mr Albanese cast his mind back to Scott Morrison’s “miracle” victory in an election that everyone from party insiders to pollsters to bookies to Coalition staffers expected Bill Shorten to win.

“There’s no complacency from my camp. I assure you of that, and this election is certainly up for grabs,” he said.

“There is one word that I will say . . It’s a year: 2019.

“I remind colleagues that 2019, the bookies paid out (on a Labor win). And guess what? That didn’t occur. That was a very unwise thing to do.”

As Labor has reversed the downward trend in both its primary vote and the two-party preferred across the gamut of public polls, Mr Albanese has appeared increasingly confident.

However, he and those around him continue to be cautious about not letting that confidence turn off voters or tip into hubris.

That fear has left the Prime Minister overtly managing expectations around the election outcome.

He has taken to saying most days, that Labor has a “mountain to climb” to win re-election.

“If you want a Labor government, you have to vote number one for Labor candidates. That is the clear message that I would give,” he said.

“Polls will come and go. The one that matters is when people tomorrow go into a polling booth.

“That’s the number that counts, not the number on page whatever of a newspaper.”

Mr Dutton has taken his campaign to Melbourne, where is will unveil a $750 million community safety plan aimed at cracking down on bikie gangs, paedophiles and drug dealers.

Shadow cabinet minister Jane Hume said people were “crying out for change” from their leaders.

“I’m not going to get into picking over the entrails of a chicken that hasn’t been gutted. Quite frankly, we’re here to win an election,” she said.