Federal election 2025: Anthony Albanese warned by strategist Kos Samaras, election won’t be won in Queensland

One of the Labor Party’s most respected campaign strategists has questioned Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to campaign in an ultra-safe Coalition central Queensland seat on day one of the federal election campaign, given Labor is haemorrhaging support in the battleground state of Victoria.

The criticisms by Kos Samaras, made on the first day of the campaign proper, point to the deep concerns held by Labor Party supporters about the Prime Minister’s campaigning tactics, the deterioration of Labor’s vote in Victoria and the ability to hold onto power.

It was backed by former Labor MP Michael Danby, who also urged the Prime Minister to “pound the streets of Port Melbourne” to implore wharfies to stick with Labor.

Mr Albanese went on the offensive on day one of his campaign, starting with a visit to a Medicare-funded Urgent Care Clinic in Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson — the most marginal seat in Queensland, which the Opposition Leader, who also campaigned on his home turf, holds by just 1.7 per cent.

The Prime Minister said he had promised his candidate, Ali France, the party’s “full resources” if she ran a third time.

“There’s nothing like that than being here on day one,” he said, adding that he intended to win majority government on May 3.

“Queensland is important.

“I’m out to win new seats. I’m out to win here. I’m out to win Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. I’m out to win Leichhardt. I’m out to win Bonner.”

Labor holds Government with a three-seat majority. Polls predict the prime minister could lose his super tight margin and govern in a minority.

But Mr Albanese has boasted to Cabinet ministers and to MPs that he believes he can not only retain his majority but win four extra seats, earmarking out Queensland electorates as likely gains.

But his second campaign stop on day one to Bundaberg in central Queensland, which the outgoing LNP MP Keith Pitt holds with a margin of ten per cent, has raised eyebrows in Labor circles in the south of the country, given Labor’s dire polling in Victoria which is set to be the battleground state that could decide the federal election.

Labor is on the nose across the state due to the ageing state Labor government on top of the already potent electoral issues of cost of living and housing and disappointment in Mr Albanese’s leadership.

Party insiders are concerned about losing Chisholm, the once safe Liberal seat of Aston, which Labor won in a post-election by-election and McEwen held by the long-standing member Rob Mitchell.

Kos Samaras, the Labor Party’s former deputy campaign director in Victoria and co-founder of the apolitical research firm RedBridge told The Nightly that the next occupant of the Lodge would not be determined by who campaigned well south of the Queensland border.

“Who gets to live in the lodge after May 3 will be the leader who wins the key swing states of NSW and Victoria, not Queensland,” he said.

Mr Samaras said it was not just the Coalition losing its traditional support base.

He said Labor’s primary vote was at risk in traditional working class suburbs, and the party could not afford to be complacent about further decline.

“In 2022, whilst all eyes were on independents winning seats in inner Melbourne and Sydney, a significant number of voters dumped Labor in Melbourne’s outer suburbs.

“That small wave has now morphed into a much larger one, potentially putting at risk up to eight seats.”

The former Labor MP for Melbourne Ports, Michael Danby, said Mr Albanese’s campaign seemed “unfocused”.

“Hinkler? Seems unfocused,” he said.

“He ought to be at least every second day in Victoria where he could lose two seats to the Greens Party and eight to the Liberals.

“He should be pounding the streets of Garden City and Port Melbourne trying to convince the wharfies to stick with Labor in McNamara.”

But Labor figures defended the move, saying the Prime Minister’s visit to champion drinks maker Bundaberg – an iconic national brand – was a message that would traverse the country, and that there was the entire campaign to go in which the leader would head to Victoria.

The push to buy Australian is a key message the government is pushing ahead of Donald Trump’s so-called “liberation day” next week, when the US President is planning to impose tariffs on a range of goods on allied countries around the world.

Labor was elected to govern in the 2022 election on its lowest-ever primary vote at the last election while the Coalition was decimated to its lowest-ever parliamentary representation.

The desire for the other vote has not abated, with a whopping 40 per cent of voters telling RedBridge they were considering anyone but the two major parties.

Mr Albanese said that this was not the time to consider a protest vote.

“If you are going to really change the country, and it’s why I joined the Labor Party as a very young person, you need to be sitting around the Cabinet table,” he said.

“You can’t govern the country with 150 independents.”

Mr Albanese also campaigned in Bega, the marginal New South Wales seat of Eden-Monaro on his way back to Canberra where he hosted drinks for the media at his official residence The Lodge, ahead of his Sunday morning appearance on the ABC’s Insiders program.

On Sunday the Prime Minister, campaigning in Canberra, hit back, telling The Nightly: “I’ve won one election as Prime Minister, I don’t think either of them have.”

— Latika M Bourke on the campaign trail in Bundaberg, Queensland