Noel Crichton-Browne: Single-minded focus the only way to win over the mass of undecided voters

This election campaign is one of the few that will dictate an election outcome. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was clearly caught flat-footed by the unexpected fortnight delay in the calling of the election and lost momentum that he has been slow to regain. For this, and for his lack of early focus, he will pay a price. That loss of momentum has been reflected in the polls. And while many voters do not cast their vote on the basis of the first weeks of a campaign, Dutton’s window of opportunity between his policy speech launch and early voting starting on Tuesday is excruciatingly narrow. He will need to keep being scrupulously positive, focused and single-minded. This election campaign is an exception in terms of the high level of softness of voter intentions. Well into the first week, polling had half of Labor voters as soft and one-third of Liberal voters as soft. These numbers are more than twice the normal number of soft voters at that stage of the campaign. A further feature of this campaign is the volatility of the voters. What it does tell us that this election is far from determined and is there to be won or lost. For the Liberal Party, the route to victory is the cost of living, and housing. There is daylight between these issues, particularly cost of living and the next issue for those voters who will deliver government for the Coalition. Dutton must unrelentingly press these issues as his key message without distraction. The Liberal Party’s reduction of 25¢ from every litre of petrol and diesel is a powerful message. The long queues at service stations on Tuesdays show the appeal of cheaper petrol. Dutton must make clear that the reduction on the cost of diesel will reduce the cost of freight and consequentially the cost of food and goods in retail outlets. With 12 interest rate increases and the cost of food alone up 13 per cent, the rounding question Dutton needs to present to the voters is: “Are you better off now than you were when Albanese was elected?” In Western Australia the first two critical seats the Liberal Party must win to achieve government are the new seat of Bullwinkel and Curtin; one it expects to win and one it hopes to win. Bullwinkel is primarily an outer metropolitan seat extending into regional areas, with 87 per cent of electors living in the metropolitan area. The seat includes Kalamunda, the only outer metropolitan seat won by the Liberal Party from Labor in the State election. Other State seats in Bullwinkel swung heavily to the Liberal Party. Bullwinkel is notionally Labor however the Liberal Party is blessed with an excellent, quality candidate in Matt Moran, a strong and effective campaigner. Moran’s competition includes the Nationals’ Mia Davies whose former State electorate is partly in Bullwinkel, however, just 13 per cent of Bullwinkel is in regional areas. In the metropolitan parts of the seat the Nationals vote in the State election in some areas was in single figures. Davies’ vote will of course improve on that. Her support for the Yes case in the referendum will not be helpful. Labor’s candidate Trish Cook’s prospects are threatened in the rural parts of the electorate by her party’s ban on live sheep exports and also the strong swing away from Labor within Bullwinkel at the State election. Moran will be hoping the National Party runs third so Davies’ preferences that will overwhelmingly flow to him, are distributed. The two contestants for the seat of Curtin are Liberal Tom White and the sitting teal Kate Chaney. White, a former Uber executive, has mounted a formidable campaign team and raised a great deal of money, as has Chaney. White and the Liberal Party cannot run a conventional election campaign in Curtin. It must be nuanced in a way that discloses and contests her stand on issues and the value she claims to offer the voters in the Federal Parliament. Chaney’s conundrum is that while representing a seat that has a large number of Liberal voters whose votes in some part she requires to win, her ideological home is the Greens who unsurprisingly preference her ahead of Labor and ultimately delivered 84.3 per cent of their preferences to her at the last election. Chaney previously felt sufficiently committed to the Labor Party and its policies that she was once a paid-up member and she has never claimed to have voted Liberal. Her procrastination about whether she will support a minority Labor or Liberal government while refusing to declare her position before the election is intended to give hope to both opposing sides. Given Chaney’s deeply held political views, the notion of her supporting a minority Liberal government is absurd. As is the wont of independents, Chaney’s mantra is that she is able to represent her electorate and not a political party. Of the 437 Bills introduced into the parliament and the 333 assented to during her term, her vote has not influenced or changed one single piece of legislation. While Chaney polled just 29.46 per cent of the primary votes and the Liberal Party 41.33 per cent, she was delivered victory by Greens and Labor preferences. For White to win, he will need to substantially strengthen his primary vote because he cannot look to favourable preferences. The Liberal Party would be foolish to underestimate Chaney’s prospects. Noel Crichton-Browne is a former Liberal senator for WA.