Will this be the opening scene of President Donald Trump – The Sequel, or curtains to any chance he has of another tilt at the White House?
The ramifications from Tuesday’s mid-term elections range from extremely significant to potentially terrifying, depending on which keen watcher of US politics you speak to.
One thing is clear though. These are no ordinary mid-terms; elections which historically elicit a low turnout of about 40 per cent of eligible voters.
And it’s not just hyper-partisan Americans who feel their nation’s fate riding on the outcome.
Ukrainians will be anxious as the flow of billions of dollars and military hardware isn’t stemmed by a new Congress with different ideas and spending priorities.
In Moscow, Vladimir Putin will be transfixed by the possibilities should control of both Congress chambers switch from Democrat blue to Republican red.
The future of American democracy is also on the line.
More than half of all Republicans running for congressional or state offices in these elections subscribe to Donald Trump’s ‘big lie’ that the presidency was stolen from him two years ago.
He’s hand-picked some and endorsed others.
Following his lead, many of them have said or intimated they too won’t accept their results, unless they win.
They include Kari Lake, described as a “Trump in heels,” Lake, a celebrity candidate and outspoken Trump loyalist is running for Governor in Arizona.
The former TV anchor is the rising star in the MAGA movement and is being touted as a potential running mate for Mr Trump should he run for President again.
Another is Blake Masters, the Senate candidate in Arizona, who has promoted a range of right-wing conspiracy theories. Mr Masters has taken a leaf out of his leader’s playbook, by casting doubt on the integrity of the vote count before it has begun.
Among their ranks is Doug Mastriano, a retired military officer who marched to the Capitol on January 6 last year and is known for peddling ludicrous QAnon conspiracy theories.
Mastriano predicts he will be elected as Governor of Pennsylvania, even though he is behind in polling.
Mr Trump’s hit squad of election-denying candidates – The New York Times counted 370 – have ratcheted up the tension across America and angst among election officials, many of whom endured traumatic death threats and abuse following the 2020 election.
The Department of Homeland Security last week said it was “very focused on an incredibly heightened threat environment” ahead of the vote.
With the recent hammer attack on Paul Pelosi dating October 28, the 82-year-old husband of leading Democrat and US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, after entering the couple’s San Francisco home looking to harm Ms Pelosi, President Joe Biden pleaded for restraint on Wednesday.
“We must, with one overwhelming unified voice, speak as a country and say there’s no place, no place for voter intimidation or political violence in America, whether it’s directed at Democrats or Republicans.”
“No place, period. No place, ever,” said President Biden.
He also warned that candidates who refuse to accept Tuesday’s results could set the nation on a “path to chaos.”
What do Americans think?
The mid-terms headache for President Biden is that democracy doesn’t pay for food, heat homes, or put petrol in cars.
Polling indicates cost of living pressures will decide the outcome of the mid-terms. It matters little that the same economic headwinds are being felt the world over.
Bruce Wolpe, a Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre in Sydney, cited Tip O’Neill, a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, who coined the phrase ‘all politics is local’.
“Yes, inflation is higher in the UK than it is in the US,” he said.
“But Americans only care about ‘what is gasoline costing me every week? What are groceries costing me? What am I paying on my mortgage? And can I afford it? And are my wages rising?’ … It’s all local.
“The economy always is front and centre … And 70 per of the country feels America is on the wrong track. Biden’s approval rate is stuck under 45 per cent. You need to be at 50 per cent or more to really lift your party’s candidates in the mid-terms.
“According to a CBS News poll over the weekend 80 per cent of the country believes that America is out of control. That is an environment in which voters will vote Republican, because they’re complaining about the economy. And that’s absolutely understandable …They feel not enough is being done to resolve their cost of living pressures.”
“Democrats hold the House by five seats.”
“The average loss of a president’s party in the mid-terms of House seats is 25 seats. And I see no reason why the loss won’t be in that range. It will be somewhere between 15 and 30 seats, I believe.
“Now the Senate is 50-50 … There are half a dozen extremely close races, all within the margin of error that will decide the outcome of the Senate.”
If the Republican Party fails to take the Senate – it only needs a net gain of one seat - Mr Trump might be dissuaded from running again, or the party might be dissuaded from giving him the opportunity. Not winning the Senate when inflation is at a 40-year high in the country would rank as a failure.
“There are two ways it’s going to go,” Mr Wolpe said.
“But if the Democrats hold the Senate, and I think there’s a reasonable chance, that would mean Democrat candidates have beaten Trump candidates, and Trump has lost.
“Republicans, will think (of Trump): ‘Okay, you won the White House in 2016, Congratulations. In 2018, you lost the House of Representatives. In 2020, you lost the White House. In January 2021, you lost the Senate in those special elections in Georgia. And now in November 2022, you have who have failed to take the Senate. Why should we back you in 2024?
“Those are the two scenarios for the Republicans. And we’ll know by this time next week, which one is more likely.”
Mr Trump, who holds no formal position within the Republican Party, is embroiled in a multitude of legal actions and investigations that could potentially put him in jail, yet the unshakeable devotion he still commands over Republican voters explains the fealty shown to him by the party’s hierarchy.
The Grand Old Party has become the MAGA Party, but there are a number of younger and ambitious Trump-like aspirants with an eye on the White House.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who are up for re-election on Tuesday, are considered front-runners although Kari Lake could overtake them.
Ms Lake emulating Mr Trump more than the others and would likely get his seal of approval if he chooses not to run.
As for President Biden, like all mid-term elections, the results will reflect the nation’s verdict on his presidency at the halfway point. The sitting president’s party almost always loses House seats in the mid-terms.
If the Republicans win control of both chambers of Congress, which enacts all legislation and controls the purse strings of the Federal Government, the President’s agenda for the next two years will be gridlocked. It would put more pressure on him to resist running again, a move 75 per cent of Democrats oppose, not least because he would be 81.
President Biden has pushed through new laws on climate change, gun-control, infrastructure investment and child poverty. But inflation, along with voter dismay at escalating crime and illegal immigration will bite hard at the ballot box.
Republicans will likely experience their own backlash from female voters over moves to outlaw abortions.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested on Tuesday along with 35 of the 100 Senate positions. There are also State and local elections across the country.
The American spirit deteroriates
President’s Biden’s much-stated aim before the 2020 election was to “restore the soul of America” by healing the nation’s dangerously deep divisions. He said it was his primary motivation for seeking the presidency.
But he has so far failed in that mission. The mutual hatred runs deep and talk of another civil war persists. In August, Mr Biden warned the Republican Party was headed toward “semi-fascism.”
Too much of what’s happening in our country today is not normal.
Barack Obama also warned about the implications of a Congress filled with election deniers.
Mr Wolpe said such a scenario would pose the question of whether American democracy works anymore.
“That leads to questions about how the rest of the world looks at America as a leader, and where it’s going to go,” he said.
The legitimacy of US elections were considered sacrosanct not that long ago. The absence of any proof of election fraud – evidenced by more than 60 lost lawsuits – doesn’t appear to matter. Facts in contemporary politics are whatever you want them to be.
“Those who want to mess with America’s democracy know this is their chance to get more power,” Mr Wolpe said.
“Those who are afraid of it know that this is a chance that we have to have to stop it … It means (right now there is) a lot more tension in the system, a lot more polarity, a lot more hyper partisanship at a moment, when that’s the last thing the country needs.”
“Every time you think it can’t be (any more polarised), it is.”
“There’s no bottom to it,” he added.
To reinforce that, many Trump supporters now refer to themselves as Ultra-MAGA, like being MAGA wasn’t hard-line enough.
Mr Wolpe predicts there will be more violence.
“Biden mentioned it today … this guy who broke into the house and attacked Paul Pelosi, he was saying the same words that the people who ransacked her office (on January 6 last year), looking for her to hunt her down and kill her saying, ‘Where’s Nancy? Where’s Nancy?’
“That means the attack on the Capitol is continuing 18 months later. And that is a terrifying prospect,” Mr Wolpe said.
About one third of Americans still refuse to accept that Mr Biden is the legitimate president.
The attack on Mr Pelosi, who suffered a fractured skull, followed a dramatic increase in threats against members of Congress. Capitol Police reported such threats of violence soared from approximately 900 cases in 2016 to 9,625 in 2021.
According to an FBI affidavit, David Wayne DePape, the man charged with the “near fatal” attack on Mr Pelosi, claimed that Nancy Pelosi was the “leader of the pack of lies” told by the Democratic Party and that if he broke her kneecaps “she would then have to be wheeled into Congress, which would show other Members of Congress there were consequences to actions.”
In addition to the hammer, DePape was found with zip ties, a rope, a roll of tape and rubber gloves.
Police have had to hose down a number of conspiracy theories circulating on social media about the incident, with some falsely suggesting the assailant and victim knew each other.
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and the recent purchaser of Twitter, got sucked in and tweeted one of the theories, before deleting it.
It has prompted the question, how can social media platforms police the vast amount of misinformation that feeds the heated political climate and violence when its owners are among those spreading it?
Even jokes about the attack are not considered off-limits.
Ms Lake drew laughter at one event when she said, “Nancy Pelosi, well, she’s got protection when she’s in D.C., apparently her house doesn’t have a lot of protection.”
Senator Ted Cruz and Representative Clay Higgins “pushed absurd internet rumours about the attack on social media,” The Washington Post reported.
President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, retweeted a photo of a hammer atop a pair of underwear with the message, “Got my Paul Pelosi Halloween costume ready.”
Enter the Republicans
The pivotal Senate contests are in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina Arizona and Wisconsin.
African-American football legend Herschel Walker, a friend of Donald Trump, is hoping redemption gets him over the line in Georgia.
His main pitch to voters has been strong opposition to abortion and transgender rights, whilst promoting traditional family values. But his campaign has been tripped up by reports that he paid for a former girlfriend’s abortion, and was accused by one of his sons of abuse and neglect. Two women, including an ex-wife, have accused him of domestic abuse.
Mr Walker, 60, who claims he suffered from Dissociative Identity Disorder in his past, denied paying for an abortion. However, he did admit that he wrote a cheque to the woman, not realising what it was for.
He is neck and neck in the polls with Democrat Raphael Warnock, 53, who became the state’s first-ever black senator in January last year.
In 2008, Time magazine included him on its list of the “100 Most Influential People.”
However, Dr Oz is highly controversial as an advocate for alternative and complementary medicine. In 2014, a Senate subcommittee interrogated him on his claims about miraculous dietary supplements.
He also upset the medical establishment with false claims, including telling mothers that there were dangerous levels of arsenic in their children’s apple juice.
On Friday, Oprah encouraged voters there to support Mt Fetterman, who is recovering from a stroke that has forced him to use closed captioning technology to answer questions during his campaign.
Nevada’s Republican candidate, Adam Laxalt, supports Mr Trump’s unfounded stolen election claims and is accordingly being backed by the former President. He is up against Catherine Cortez Masto , who won election to Congress in 2016 as the country’s first ever Latina senator, with the result too close to call.
The race in New Hampshire has got feral with Republican candidate, Don Bolduc, making bizarre claims about school-children being allowed to identify as cats at a local school, “using litter trays and licking themselves and each other,” he described.
The school in question this week said the claims were “entirely untrue”.
Mr Bolduc, who was endorsed by Mr Trump on Monday, questioned whether the FBI should be abolished following its search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, which uncovered roughly 100 classified documents that are at the centre of a continuing Justice Department investigation.
Also a proponent of the ‘big lie’, Mr Boduc has spoken of his willingness to reject certifying the 2024 results if elected. He’s narrowly behind Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan in the polls.
In North Carolina, gun store owner Tedd Budd is in a tight race with Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the state supreme court.
Mr Budd was one of 147 Republican members of Congress who voted against certifying the 2020 election results last year.
Former NASA astronaut and Democrat hopeful, Mark Kelly, has had a turbulent ride in recent weeks as his lead in Arizona over right-wing Republican Blake Masters shrunk.
Mr Kelly, after His wife Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was shot in the head in Tucson last year at a grocery store has been adamantly campaigning on gun control.
Ms Giffords survived, but five people were killed and another ten people were injured in the mass shooting.
Mr Masters, a venture capitalist who opposes US aid to Ukraine, has received last-minute surge of millions of dollars from Republican donors to help him push past Mr Kelly. The momentum behind Kari Lake for Arizona Governor is also helping, with the pair running as a ticket.
Big Don, the king of refusal
One reason why Donald Trump failed to overturn the 2020 election was the refusal of his demands by Republican officials, like Brad Raffensperger, in the battleground states.
At state level, it’s the role of the secretary of state to run an election.
When a dispute arises, a secretary of state has the ability to change the way people are allowed to vote and even change the rules around the count.
Both major parties have been investing heavily in the secretary of state races in recognition of how critical those positions will be in 2024 if election results are close and challenged again.
Several of the Republican candidates for secretary of state are avowed 2020 election deniers.
In 2024, they might be prepared to do what Mr Raffensperger wasn’t.
International Headaches
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is tipped to become House Majority Leader next week, caught attention with some recent comments he made about future financial support for Ukraine under a Republican-controlled House.
“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. … Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do and it can’t be a blank check,” he said.
His comments didn’t indicate a u-turn in policy, but they were another signal of a desire to ease the scale of assistance, which so far tops $65 billion.
In September, 57 House representatives and 11 senators, all Republicans, voted against the last $12 billion funding allocation to Kyiv.
Mr Trump has called for a truce in the conflict, while some of his endorsed candidates would like to see the aid to Ukraine completely stop.
“I think we’re at the point where we’ve given enough money in Ukraine … The Europeans need to step up,” said Senate candidate for Ohio, J.D. Vance.
Mr Wolpe said he didn’t believe President Biden would allow a situation that would threaten Ukraine’s military gains, but there was going to be pressure to reduce the funding.
“I think there’s pressure, certainly from some Republicans and also from some Democrats that it’s time to wind back the degree of support for Ukraine, because their thinking is we need to spend at home to rebuild the country and the economy.”
“I also see a harder line on China emerging, especially on the Republican side. It’s certainly not soft on the Democratic side … I think you will see pressure in Congress to act tougher with more military presence in the region, and not to shy away from confronting what are perceived to be aggressive acts undertaken by China,” he added.
“I think that relationship with China will get more tense. The APEC meeting is coming up, Biden will be there, Xi will be there. That’s the chance for their first face-to-face meeting … That will be a very important event.”