Massive drop in WA wool production forecast as result of El Nino weather and live sheep ban

The State’s wool production is expected to take a massive 6.2 per cent hit in the 2023-24 season, with a reduction to 56.9 million kilograms greasy forecast for the State by the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee.

The results are expected to be the second-worst in the nation after Victoria’s dramatic drop of 7.6 per cent to 64.7Mkg greasy.

The reductions in wool production are expected to be caused by seasonal conditions, particularly on the east coast of Australia and southern parts of WA, due to forecast warmer and drier conditions for September to November.

WA’s wool production is also expected to be hit hard as part of the fallout of the Federal Government’s plan to phase out live sheep exports in the future.

While the outlook appears negative, the national forecast total for 2023-24 is just a 1.1 per cent decline to 324Mkg greasy, in line with 2021-22 season results.

AWPFC chairman Stephen Hill said the national total for the 2022-23 season, which ended on June 30, was up 1.3 per cent, taking the total to 328Mkg greasy, due to favourable seasonal conditions across key wool production regions.

WA’s result for the 2022-23 season was down one per cent from 61.2Mkg greasy the previous season to 60.6Mkg greasy.

Mr Hill said the total increase was due to more sheep being retained on farm because of low sheep meat prices on offer and seasonal conditions causing the average wool cut per head to increase by 2.2 per cent on last season to 4.59kg greasy.

“The favourable conditions for sheep and wool production evident in Autumn carried forward to the end of the 2022-23 season,” Mr Hill said.

Looking ahead to the 2023-24 season, Mr Hill said reduced sheep meat prices and “continued limitations on processing capacity” were expected to fuel a modest increase in the number of sheep shorn, 72.1 million, up 0.8 per cent, as “producers retain some of the sheep that would normally have been turned off”.

“The average cut per head is expected to reduce to 4.50kg greasy (down 2.2 per cent) due to retained lambs in most states and the hotter and drier seasonal outlook,” Mr Hill said.

He said producers in most states were “wary of carrying excess stock if the season deteriorates”.

“The timing of any hotter and drier weather will impact sheep producers’ decisions to sell or retain stock going into summer,” Mr Hill said.

Mr Hill said while most Australian Wool Testing Authority key test data for the 2022-23 season was similar to the 2021-22 season, the wool test volume was up by 3.8 per cent on a year-on-year basis, with first-hand offered wool at auction on par with the 2021-22 season.

The August AWPFC estimate included a clean wool estimate for average cut per head and shorn wool production, which was taken from AWTA key test data from the 2022-23 season’s yield.

Mr Hill said shorn sheep numbers this season were similar to last season at 71.5 million head (down 0.1 per cent), with New South Wales continuing to have the largest sheep flock at 25.9 million sheep expected to be shorn and a production of 119Mkg of greasy wool.

Victoria is expected to shear 16.1 million sheep and produce 70Mkg greasy, with Western Australia producing 60.6Mkg greasy wool from about 13 million sheep.

The AWPFC is expected to review its wool production forecast in December once the seasonal and market outlook is better understood.