WA farmers set to produce 60 per cent less grain than last year’s record harvest but potential ‘still there’

WA farmers are set to produce 60 per cent less grain compared with last year’s record-breaking harvest as as tale of two seasons plays out across the State. Flooded paddocks spotted in parts of the Great Southern are a stark contrast to the dry conditions across most of WA’s grain growing areas, with yield potential likely to fall further without significant rainfall in the next month. Grain Industry Association of WA’s August crop report has forecast a 16.96 million tonne harvest, down more than 2Mt on the July prediction of 18.13Mt when conditions looked more promising. The figure is a far cry from the record 26Mt produced by the State’s grain growers last year, which was 8 per cent higher than the record 24Mt produced in 2021 and 31 per cent higher than the prior record of 18.6Mt per cent set in 2016. GIWA crop report author Michael Lamond said the potential for a good year was “still there”, but the “bucket” — or moisture level — in paddocks was nearly empty and a handful of double-digit falls were desperately needed. “The majority of the State’s canola crop is in good shape as the early sowing has assisted in pushing it through its growth stages in front of the cereals, which will result in less exposure to heat shock in spring,” he said. It is now unlikely wheat production will exceed 10 million tonnes as large areas of the central regions that were holding potential until a week ago, are now sweating off tillers in response to the dry conditions and warm temperatures. “The State’s barley crop has quite a mixed potential with the better areas looking very good but crops in the drier areas are running up due to moisture stress. An average grain yield of 2.5 tonnes per hectare is going to see out most crops.” The GIWA report forecast a 9.15Mt wheat crop, 4.36Mt barley crop, 2.51Mt barley crop and 2.51Mt canola crop. Oat production was forecast to hit 465,000 tonnes, while lupins were set to reach 385,000t and pulses 94,000t. Farmers’ harvest results were set to vary by geographical area, with those in the biggest zone — Kwinana — set to produce 7.55Mt of grain, followed by the Albany Port Zone at 4.40Mt. Harvest totals are forecast to dip in the Esperance Port Zone at 2.90Mt, and Geraldton Port Zone at 2.01Mt. It’s a “mixed bag” across WA, with severe waterlogging in some parts and very dry areas Climate models continue to indicate that below normal rain is more likely over coming months for most of Australia, with lower rainfall predicted across southern WA as an El Nino Alert remains in place. Mr Lamond said crop and pasture development had slowed since April on the back of low rainfall and temperatures, with a cold June and frosts in July and August stifling potential. There was some good news contained in the report, which revealed crops were generally “clean” and disease or insects had not been a major issue this year — aside from some mild reports of powdery mildew in Sceptre wheat. Albany farmers appeared to have avoided the bad barley leaf disease that plagued crops last year, while barley disease levels have also been low due to dry conditions.